A data sketch of the opioid epidemic
During the past few years, there has been exponentially increasing media coverage of the opioid crisis in the U.S., especially focusing on synthetic variety such as Fentanyl. The CDC estimates that the potency of the synthetic opioid is about 50-100 times as much as morphine, and it has been a lucrative merchandise for the cartel, leading up to the biggest Fentanyl bust recently at the Arizona border.
I came across opioid datasets from the Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation and economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using these resources I wanted to examine the potential relationship betwee opioid death rate and economic downturn (i.e, unemployment rate) for each state. Furthermore, the interactive line plot shows that every state has its own trends of mortality from different types of opioid.
RetinaNet lung opacity detection (with meta data)
The Radiological Society of North America (RSNA) recently hosted a Kaggle competition, where Kagglers are asked to build a model to screen for marker of pneumonia by detecting lung opacity on chest radiographs. The standard practice for diagnosis of pneumonia is time consuming - requiring review of radiographs by trained professional, vital sign, and clinical history of the individual patient. The quality of the chest radiograph (CXR) also makes accurate diagnosis a challenging task, because the opaque features can be caused by pulmonary edema,bleeding, or fluid in the pleural space . To quote the RSNA:
"They see the potential for ML to automate initial detection (imaging screening) of potential pneumonia cases in order to prioritize and expedite their review."
I tried out the RetinaNet object detector (implemented in Keras by Fizyr) on the image dataset, but unfortunately ran out of time to submit before the deadline. For this post, I will focus mostly on model performance and tradeoff associated with using meta data from the dicom image files. But before going into that, I will explain why I chose RetinaNet.
Bayesian approach and probabilistic programming
Most people working with statistical analysis are familiar with Bayes Theorem, but in doing probilistic programming there's a lot of nuances in implementing Bayes theorem. In this post I'll briefly summarize the Bayesian approach and show an example of working with mixed type of data (continuous and categorical) using Python's PYMC3 package (and there will be NO coin-flipping example).